Battle Over Power Usurpation: Mapping the Sudan Civil War Through the Conflict Wheel Model

Abstract

The two long years of brutal war have severely decimated Sudan. With no sign of a ceasefire or peace talks in action yet, Sudan currently presents the largest humanitarian crisis in the world ever recorded. The study examines the causal factors of the ongoing Sudanese civil war, specifically using a unique conflict analysis approach called the Conflict Wheel Model (CWM), which emphasizes identifying key actors, issues, context, dynamics, causation, and exit options, thereby providing an insightful explanation of the conflict. The study relies on a qualitative approach, using a case study and thematic analysis of various available secondary data sources. The application of the CWM suggests that the failed transitional power-sharing process after Al-Bashir’s coup d'état, the Rapid Support Force’s hegemonic rise posing a threat to the Sudanese army’s leadership, and consistent external influence over Sudan’s strategic location and resources have created a violent backdrop for power-reigning competition between two Sudanese tyrannical generals. Additionally, the study successfully unveils past ethnic politicization, the legacy of “divide and rule,” and repeated military coups since post-colonization as latent determinants that have kept the seeds of war alive for years. The study proposes recommendations toward peace, including drafting a provisional vision of post-war governance, addressing ethnic grievances, preserving civilian representation, decentralizing the military’s monopolization of state power, and detaching foreign strategic engagement through the establishment of Multilateral Peace-Building Strategies at the international level. Overall, this paper concludes that peace initiatives can be achieved only through the adoption of a holistic approach from all sides.